Moon Missions: NASA Panel Puts Starship Refueling Count at 22

A new estimate for the number of SpaceX Starship launches needed to fuel a lunar lander has emerged, and the figure is significantly higher than some previous projections. The number, which has been a closely guarded metric within NASA's Artemis Program, is now being discussed publicly following a recent meeting of the agency's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel.

The panel's quarterly meeting on Thursday included a discussion of risks associated with landing humans on the Moon. During this session, panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, addressed the launch requirements for a Starship-based lunar lander. The figure he provided was 22 launches.

The task involves using a 'depot' Starship to store propellant in low-Earth orbit. Multiple 'tanker' Starships would then be launched to fill the depot with the liquid oxygen and methane required for a lunar mission. The lander would then refuel from the depot before traveling to the Moon, landing, and returning to lunar orbit.

NASA has historically declined to provide a specific number for these flights. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA's Human Landing System, stated she was reluctant to provide a precise figure. She later indicated the number was in the 'high single digits to the low double digits,' a range that could suggest around a dozen launches. Other officials have previously cited 'high teens.'

The hope has been that improvements to Starship's lift capacity would reduce the required number of tanker flights. However, concerns have been raised among some NASA officials that such improvements may not be happening soon enough for Starship to play a significant role in NASA's Artemis program this decade.

The potential role of Starship in the Artemis program has been a subject of ongoing discussion. The system is intended to serve as the lunar lander for the program, which aims to return astronauts to the Moon. The high number of launches required for refueling is a key factor in the timeline and feasibility of such missions.

The estimate of 22 launches represents a significant logistical undertaking. The timeline for any future missions involving Starship will depend on the pace of launches and the availability of the necessary infrastructure for propellant storage and transfer in orbit.

There is no official comment from NASA or SpaceX on the panel's estimate. The number of launches required for a Starship-based lunar mission remains a critical variable in the planning for future Artemis flights. The agency has not provided a timeline for when it will address the launch requirements for its lunar program.